Climate change is a largely debated
issue that is threatening to cause widespread problems across the world. In my
earlier blog entry, I briefly mentioned how climate change could impact
possible woodland management strategies. But I failed to note how climate
change will actually affect the Southern areas of England and what this will
mean for woodlands like Seeley Copse, the areas and people surrounding the
woodlands.
The BBC state that in the South East
of England, on average the temperature will rise 2C by the 2050’s. This will
have risen a further 1C 30 years later. However it is not just the heat that
will increase but also the rainfall and sea levels will rise, attributed to the
melting ice caps. The Climate Research Unit estimate global sea levels will
rise between 12cm and 67cm by 2050, possibly causing some areas of the South
East to become submerged in water. This problem is further amplified by the
fact that the South East of the
country is sinking while the North West is rising due to isostatic readjust.
These changes will have many different consequences.
PLANTS and TREES
Overall fifteen per cent of the South East is wooded, this is England’s most wooded region. However with the imminent climate change it is possible this may not be the case in the future.
Scientist believe
that the beech tree is likely to be one of the highest risks as the tree’s
shallow roots grow on what is normally light, free-draining soil, thus making
the tree particularly vulnerable to drought, gales and storms. As a result it
is predicted that the beech tree line will recede North and West in line with
the temperature changes.
Competition is also likely to occur between different species.
This is shown with the oak and the ash when it comes to the first leafing. Oak
comes into leaf around 4 days earlier than the ash per every 1C rise in
temperature, therefore giving the oak an advantage. With possible future
temperature changes it is had to predict the future composition of our
woodland.
The change in temperatures will mean that many new plant species
will now be able to grow in the South East of England. In gardens more exotic
plants and trees may now be found. It is predicted by 2050 that many
plants such as delphiniums and lupins could be replaced by pomegranates, citrus
fruits and apricots.
Plants will also be affected by the changes in climate as early
springs will cause trees and plants to come into life and flower earlier. This
may leave less time for the plants to gather energy from the sun for
photosynthesis if the trees provide shelter. There will also become an increase
in competition for space and light, between traditional spring plants and those
that are able to survive harsher conditions.
CROPS and FOOD
The changes in temperatures will alter the types of crops and
farming that occurs in the South of England. Two thirds of land is farmed
with traditional crops including potatoes, apples and strawberries. The
temperature increases could result in the current crops moving northwards with
more suited temperatures and the South East growing different crops such as figs,
soya and even olives. The fruits found in the region would change with peaches
and nectarines soon becoming the norm.
Fishermen will also be changing their catch, soon being able to
catch more exotic fish such as mullet, anchovies and even sharks becoming more
common in our waters. This will be due to the temperature increase in the seas
surrounding the UK.
ANIMALS and INSECTS
The warmer temperatures would cause a wide variety of different
insects and pests to thrive that currently cannot. An example worrying many
farmers is the Colorado beetle which would cause widespread destruction. A long
list of pests may become a problem including; cockroaches, fleas, mites,
bloodsucking ticks, scorpions, poisonous spiders and even possibly malaria
carrying mosquitoes.
The predicted
climate change is putting biodiversity at risk. In the past ten years the
number on the governments list of at risk species has doubled from 577 in 1997
to 1,149 in 2007.
On this list a
fifth of the UK’s most familiar birds can be found. The future climate changes
could put these birds at risk further due to the loss of their natural
habitats, breeding habitats and food supply. This may lead to some bird species
being lost from the South East and new birds may colonise from Europe.
Added to this
list in 2007 was the hedgehog, grass snake and harvest mouse. It is predicted
that with future changes the hedgehog may have become extinct by 2025. This
will be due to hibernation patterns becoming disrupted and a slug, one of its
main food supplies, shortage all caused by the hot dry summers.
Some species
will have their life cycles disrupted due to the changes; this will be even
more disastrous for species that tend to breed once a year. An example of this
already happening is frogspawn. In South East England they are often found even
before Christmas and January. This early spawning is caused by the mild weather
found in current winters. However problems arise when normal temperatures
appear and the water freezes, causing the frogs to have to wait another year in
order to breed successfully.
WATER SUPPLIES
Flooding is a major threat posed by climate change this will
affect many of the low lying areas of the South of England causing widespread
problems for thousands of homes and businesses and industrial areas.
Despite the flooding water is likely to become scarce as the
demand is expected to rise by eleven per cent in the next twenty years and as a
result water will become expensive. This will cause hosepipe bans to be put
into place permanently.
However not all the impacts may be negative. With the increase in
temperatures the Mediterranean is likely
to decline as a holiday destination and the South East of England may now become
a more suitable alternative with August temperatures predicted to be over 30C.
This will bring in large amounts of money for the area if it becomes a tourist
hotspot and will increase business. It is also likely to reduce carbon emissions
with people moving across the UK rather than using air travel causing airport
expansion.
Many of the impacts mentioned to appear to be negative ones,
especially for our current wildlife and insect population. However these
impacts are not definite outcomes, only predictions currently. Although their
may be negative effects there may also be unforeseen benefits with the new
climate, and new species may provide benefits that will outweigh the negatives.
Until climate change actually occurs it is not possible to say for definite how
things will be altered.
Lauren Harden
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